Vietnam is sliding into a demographic trap just as the clock is ticking on its economic ambitions. A recent nationwide survey by the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS) reveals that 31.4 % of respondents aged 18 to 60 say they do not intend to have children, while 27.1 % say they don’t plan to marry—a kind of double whammy that threatens the country’s labour‐market foundations. The average desired number of children per family is 2.35, yet the actual number drops to just 1.86, signalling a widening gap between aspiration and reality.
At a time when Vietnam is gearing up for industrialisation, modernisation and high-tech manufacturing, these numbers ring alarm bells about workforce quality and quantity. With fewer young people entering the labour market, and many stuck in low-productivity sectors like agriculture and informal services, the country risks squandering the tailwind of its “demographic dividend.” According to a 2024 body of research, roughly half of Vietnam’s workforce only holds basic qualifications and a significant portion remains tethered to low-productivity jobs, putting the country behind regional peers like Thailand and Malaysia.
The fertility story is stark: Vietnam’s total fertility rate (TFR) fell to around 1.91 children per woman in 2024, down from 2.11 in 2021, and well below the 2.1 replacement threshold needed to maintain population stability. In metro areas like Ho Chi Minh City, the picture is even more dramatic: the TFR there has hovered as low as 1.39.
The government is aware of the stakes. VASS leadership suggests a shift away from rigid population controls toward “flexible, region-specific” policies that promote reproductive autonomy while using social tools like tax incentives, housing support, financial aid and welfare to nudge family formation. Indeed, in June 2025 the government formally scrapped its nearly 40-year-old two-child policy, giving families freedom to decide how many children they can have.
But this is just the first step. Experts argue that simply relaxing policy won’t magically reverse the trend. In developed contexts even comprehensive welfare states struggle to boost birthrates. A working paper on Vietnam suggests that beyond policy, root causes include high living costs, shifting lifestyles, stronger career orientation among women, and rising infertility.
Juxtaposed with this fertility slump is a fragility in workforce quality and preparedness. The human-capital metrics tell a story: from the World Bank database, Vietnam’s adolescent fertility (births per 1,000 women aged 15–19) remains relatively high in comparison, signalling social and health burdens. And according to research published in AMRO’s “How Can Vietnam Transition…” the country’s pension-system coverage is low (only about 38 % of working-age people were in formal pension schemes at end of 2022) which hints at structural fragility as the population ages.
In short, Vietnam may be coming to the end of its “young nation” chapter. The UN-derived population-pyramid momentum suggests the labour force will peak around 2042, and absolute population decline could begin by the mid-2050s. Until then, the country needs a two-fold transformation: one, boost fertility and family formation through credible, attractive incentives; and two, upgrade workforce skills, train a more agile and high-productivity labour force, and shift economic sectors toward knowledge- and tech-based value.
What does this mean for everyday citizens and businesses? Young couples weigh the cost of raising kids when housing is pricey, childcare is limited and career paths are demanding. At the same time companies seeking skilled staff worry about a talent pipeline drying up or being ill-equipped for advanced manufacturing. The government’s challenge is to craft a policy palette that feels tangible: better maternity/paternity leave, affordable childcare, tax breaks, affordable housing and career-friendly environments for parents. Meanwhile the private sector must invest in skilling, lifelong learning and adapting to a smaller pool of new entrants.
Vietnam’s demographic moment is slipping. The warning flags are waving: lower birthrates, reluctant marriage, shrinking future labour pools, skills mismatch, and ageing just as the economy is trying to sprint forward. The question for policymakers, citizens and businesses is whether the pivot will come fast enough—and whether Vietnam can convert shrinking numbers into smarter, stronger economic engines that carry the nation into its next phase.